Where did it all go wrong for the Lib Dems?

This election was supposed to signal the revival of the Liberal Democrats. After their drubbing in 2015, Jo Swinson’s election as leader in July offered a new hope that successes in the European and local elections would transform into a healthy number of Parliamentary seats. Large numbers of southern Conservative constituencies, where they had previously been a potent force, were susceptible to their anti-Brexit message. With the Brexit vote split between Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, a united Remain voice would storm through the middle.

With a week to go until polling day, those hopes are long gone. Having first been excluded from the televised leadership debates, a subsequent poll then found that the more people saw of Swinson, the less they liked her. This was a terrible failure, considering the extreme and divisive characters of both Johnson and Corbyn. If the Lib Dems are to create a liberal movement — or create anything at all — they need a leader who can connect with the public.

To succeed in this election, Swinson needed to present herself and her party as a rational, moderate force, compared to the hard left and nationalist choices on offer. The initial signs were promising — many former Tory, Labour and Change UK MPs joined the Lib Dems over the summer, citing the party’s united stance on Brexit and their fears of infiltration and racism in their former parties.

Many inside the Lib Dems hoped and believed that this growing support in Parliament would have tangible results at the ballot box, an assumption that seemed to be born out by the European parliamentary results. With Johnson looking unlikely to get a new Brexit deal, the party seemed to be winning new support across the political divide.

This ensuing hype in the run-up to conference season led to a dramatic mission statement. Swinson said that if she were elected Prime Minister, she would instantly revoke Article 50 without consulting the people. In doing so Swinson moved away from supporting the People’s Vote movement, which was beginning to win the support among Labour MPs, who are crucial for getting legislation for a second referendum through the Commons.

The shift in stance was not without reason; Corbyn was under pressure in his own party to push for a second vote, and Swinson was eager to cement her party’s position as the unequivocal voice of Remain. But it only ended up making the Lib Dems look unduly extreme.

This Article 50 policy has caused huge problems on the doorstep. Recent YouGov polls predict that Swinson is on course to win just thirteen seats — a loss of seven — and that her own constituency is now under threat from the SNP. The two main parties have shifted the debate onto other topics such as education and the NHS, on which the Lib Dems have little to say.

Instead of choosing to support smaller parties, most voters have chosen to stick to their traditional homes, with northern voters destined to decide whether Johnson can get hold of the working majority he craves. In southern seats, Johnson’s message of “Get Brexit Done” has resonated more with voters than the Lib Dem’s alienating policy of ignoring the referendum result.

Polling shows that, in several constituencies, the Lib Dems’ are likely to face their traditional problem of finishing in a strong second place. The Lib Dems made a bet that Brexit would be the defining issue of the campaign — they may well be proved wrong in that assumption.

The Remain movement, which has fought valiantly since the referendum, is now on its last legs. Having failed to secure a second referendum, its now faces the prospect of a final defeat in the form of a Boris Johnson majority. The Liberal Democrats have seen the chance to create a powerful Remain movement in Parliament slip from their grasp, and their divisive campaign message has not connected many voters outside of a hard Remain support base.

In the last week, many senior figures in the party have spoken of their enduring support for a second referendum if they become a power-broker in Downing Street, and their attacks now focus on Johnson and Corbyn themselves. This U-turn may well be too little and too late. The Lib Dems seem to have sown the seeds of their own electoral downfall.