Where the Tories went wrong — and how to fix it

Ipsos has recently published its report How Britain Voted in the 2024 Election . The report explores the key reasons behind voting patterns in the recent general election. It’s essential reading, not only for potential leaders of the Conservative Party, but for anyone who cares whether it will still exist as a credible party in the next decade.

The first thing the report illustrates is the extent of the breakdown in the traditional  Tory coalition on the centre-Right of British politics. Rishi Sunak’s failure to unite the Conservative Party and the wider centre-Right handed the election to Keir Starmer without Labour having to substantially increase its popular base. The data shows that the Conservatives lost 21% of their 2019 vote share, with a notable portion defecting to Reform UK, which gained 15% of the vote. The next Conservative leader, wherever they are on the centre-Right spectrum, must rebuild this fractured coalition. Uniting the centre-Right and presenting a cohesive vision is paramount.

One of the most sobering statistics for any new Conservative leader is the fact that Labour was 10 clear percentage points ahead of the Conservative Party in the demographic AB adults 18-65 — in layman’s English, posh people who aren’t retired. This demographic is umbilically linked to the top of UK PLC and is the first group any Conservative leader must claw back. 

But in recent years, they have been treated shabbily by the Conservative Party, epitomised by Boris Johnson’s infamous “f*** business” remark. Worse, Liz Truss thought the economy was something she could control, rather than the countless firms, large and small, that actually make the most important decisions. The bond markets taught her — and us — a hell of a lesson. This arrogance has alienated the business community, as reflected in the election results.

The Conservatives must craft a compelling narrative that addresses the challenges faced by business, particularly post-Brexit. The next leader should focus on policies that drive growth and innovation in the service sector, where the UK has a competitive edge. Emphasising a return to free-market principles and reducing regulatory burdens could resonate with business leaders — but that’s all been said before and likely to fall on deaf ears. 

Therefore the next Conservative leader needs to actually get under the bonnet of the UK economy and start talking about ways to liberate SMEs first, and big business second, and think about how the jewel in the UKs business crown, the service sector, can be exported across the world. For too long politicians have thought being pro-business is about getting Google to put its European headquarters in London, or saving blast furnaces in Wales — and such things are important. However, far more important for the wider economy will be to liberate the next generation of Bransons and even Del Boys to go out there and make money.

The Ipsos figures demonstrate the way the Conservative Party’s support base is increasingly ageing, with a significant portion over 65. The data shows that, while the party leads among older voters, this demographic alone is insufficient for long-term viability. 

Appealing to younger voters without alienating the core older demographic is a delicate balance. The Conservatives need to modernise their platform to include issues important to younger generations, such as housing and digital economy opportunities. The wider, multigenerational family unit has moved out of fashion in the recent political dialogue and needs to return. You’ll find no greater stalwart of the younger generation than the 65+ demographic, but only if presented in terms creating a future for their grandchildren.

While the culture war narrative has gained traction among certain right-wing factions and generated some compelling headlines in the Daily Express and Twitter, it is divisive and off-putting to mainstream voters. The Ipsos data suggests that focusing excessively on these issues can alienate potential supporters, which isn’t the way you go around creating coalitions.

Instead of this woke/anti-woke knee-jerk headline chasing, the Conservative Party should anchor its narrative in the broader historical and cultural legacy of the UK. Emphasizing values such as liberty, fairness, and social progress, rooted in British history, could create a unifying vision. A new leader should highlight the contributions from the punctuation marks in British history: Magna Carta, Putney Debates, the anti-slavery movement, universal enfranchisement and facing down continental tyranny. This shouldn’t be presented as an archaic vision of Merrie England, but in terms of the late Queen parachuting out of a helicopter to open the 2012 Olympics. It’s a face we can all recognize and be proud to present to the world.

And in a global context, the Conservative Party must position itself as a defender of Western democratic values against authoritarian regimes. This involves clearly differentiating itself from Putin’s far-Right movements in Europe and their populist equivalents in the UK.

The Conservatives should articulate a strong stance against the ideologies represented here by Reform, framing it as contrary to British democratic traditions. By emphasising their commitment to democracy, human rights, and international cooperation, the Conservatives can appeal to a broader base, putting clear blue water between the likes of Reform and themselves when it comes to NATO, Ukraine, and Taiwan.

Lastly, to regain voter trust and demonstrate their commitment to addressing key public concerns, the Conservative Party needs to really zero in on health and education.

To modernize the NHS, the party needs to build narratives around learning from countries where healthcare is demonstrably working better than in the UK. At the moment, the narrative is: the NHS on one side, or the corrupt and dysfunctional system found in the United States on the other. The debate needs to move beyond the ideological sensibilities to centre on a results based healthcare system. Labour is in absolutely no position to take on the UK health system even if it wants to. Keir Starmer’s hands are tied, as every PM of all political beliefs has found, and feels he has to treat the NHS like a tantrum-prone toddler: give it all the fast food and chocolate it screams for — anything for a quiet life. 

Education reforms should focus on building a workforce that looks beyond the Asian obsession with numeracy:  AI and tech will make much of this pretty much obsolete in the next generation. British children need to build on an educational identity of creativity, alternative thinking, and argument. It’s unfashionable to talk outside of the STEM subjects, but how about investing in the arts, humanities, and creativity?

The future of the Conservative Party hinges on its ability to unite its fragmented base, regain business support, appeal to younger voters, present a coherent vision and have solutions for key areas of concern with the electorate. Without this the Tory party risks becoming as relevant to modern Britain as the Women’s Institute, the Church of England, or the National Union of Mineworkers.