Why has Britain had it so bad?
(Photo by Hollie Adams/Getty Images)
Am I alone in wondering what on earth we in the UK have done to get like this? How can we be both the worst affected by Covid-19, both health-wise and economically? This comes on top of the paralysis caused by Brexit, which in turn came on top of the problems left over from the great financial crisis of 2008.
I thought one of the great maxims was “never let a good crisis go to waste” — but we seem to have done it over and over.
One common feature throughout the first 20 years of this millennium is that the UK continues to experience a remarkably low productivity performance, which could well explain a lot of this.
League tables of sustainable economic development indicators show that the UK is way off the top. One that I presided over when I was Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs in the Noughties showed the UK — on an index of 15 variables — somewhere around 25th on a list of 180 countries. Similar indices are regularly calculated each year by the UN, World Bank, Legatum Institute, KPMG and others. In this regard, the UK’s performance during this pandemic is not especially surprising.
This would also explain why we were so vulnerable during the 2008 crisis and the Covid-19 downturn, but not why so many countries that score so much lower than us, appear to be coping better in terms of lives lost.
Are we just a bit unlucky in this crisis? One theory is that the remarkable openness of London made us more vulnerable than anywhere else in the world to the pandemic. Belgium is one of the very few countries with more recorded deaths to population than Britain. That would also fit with it being a particularly open place — Brussels especially.
In the earliest weeks of March, it was often pointed out that we were two weeks behind Italy. We were also two weeks behind South Korea, which experienced its initial outbreak at approximately the same time. We didn’t get anywhere near South Korea’s health management response, and followed an Italian curve.
Why that occurred is beyond the scope of this piece. Instead I want to focus more on the problem of strategic decision making.
What is so irksome about this pandemic is that, back in 2015, the UK was active in highlighting the threats from infectious diseases. Our National Risk Register cited Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) and Pandemics as among the greatest threats to the UK. I chaired an independent Review into AMR, and that experience taught me that the UK was regarded as a leading thinker about these challenges.
The same political party has been in power since since 2010, first in coalition, but since 2015, alone. There have been three different Prime Ministers during this 10 year period. When it comes to infectious diseases, why was the leadership shown under David Cameron not followed?
And now comes the challenge of easing the lockdown, and trying to get the economy going again. Do other countries have this same excruciating debate about every single step of opening up their economy? Or are we making it especially difficult for ourselves? We seem to be stuck with the two metre social distancing rule, despite the clear evidence that, for schools, hospitality industries and others, it is virtually impossible to operate with them.
How come others can be more decisive. Why do so many not have the two metre rule? Why did we choose the two metres in the first place, especially when the WHO itself didn’t specifically recommend it? Why do we finally introduce a 14-day quarantine at our airports, just as the worst of the pandemic is beginning to subside?
More broadly, why are we even contemplating having no trade deal whatsoever with the EU now, just to compound our strategic economic challenges. Why, despite endless expert advice from our security services on Huawei, are we choosing to weaken our potential economic relationship with China?
Just as Manchester United has become quickly dependent on Bruno Fernandez as the season starts up again shortly, the country has a lot resting on the Oxford vaccine development, and the yet to be implemented policy of levelling-up.
