Will Trump be impeached? If so, is that curtains for him?

Here’s a quiz question for those readers of TheArticle who share my interest in the biographical minutiae of occupants of the White House. Of the 45 men who have served as President of the United States, how many have been impeached?

The answer is two: Andrew Johnson in 1868 (violation of the Tenure of Office Act) and Bill Clinton in 1998 (lying under oath, obstruction of justice).

But while Johnson and Clinton were both impeached in the House of Representatives, the Senate acquitted them. Neither President received the two-thirds majority vote of senators that would have found him guilty of high crimes and misdemeanours, as laid out in the US Constitution’s articles of impeachment.

It seems very likely Donald Trump will become the third President to be impeached in the House of Representatives — and acquitted in the Senate.

How did Trump get into this predicament? The Democrats had considered initiating impeachment proceedings against him on several previous occasions. Senior party leaders, the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi among them, opted against this political strategy, because it could easily work against them.

They finally pulled the trigger on September 24, after the release of a whistleblower report alleging that Trump had acted improperly in recent negotiations with Ukraine. Trump and his personal attorney, the former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, were said to have spoken to the Ukrainian government between May to August about investigating Joe Biden, Obama’s former Vice-President and Trump’s most serious political opponent in the 2020 presidential election. Trump and Giuliani also wanted the Ukrainians to look into the business dealings of Biden’s son, Hunter, who had served on the board of a Ukrainian natural gas producer, Burisma Holdings.

There was a further allegation that on July 18 Trump, through his chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, had directed his officials to put on hold $391 million in aid to Ukraine. A final allegation related to a phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a week later, in which the former reportedly pressured the latter to help advance his personal and political agenda.

As this information leaked out, Trump dismissed the criticism. He told reporters that the words he had used in his phone call with Zelensky were “all perfect”. Two unnamed political aides told the New York Times on September 25 this discussion “matched” his usual dealings with world leaders. An unnamed former senior aide also told the paper said it was part of the President’s “typical playbook” in which he would “engage in flattery, discuss mutual cooperation and bring up a favour that then could be delegated to another person on Mr Trump’s team.”

Democrats would have none of this. They claimed Trump’s actions were “a betrayal of national security,” and immediately called for impeachment hearings. After a bit of back-and-forth, the White House released a “transcript” of the phone call (although they later admitted it wasn’t word for word) and declassified the whistleblower report.

When you go through the materials, it all comes down to a matter of interpretation. The revelation that one world leader privately asked another world leader for help isn’t surprising or questionable, but it would be if it were for a re-election bid. What was released in the phone call transcript doesn’t strike me as problematic, but we don’t know exactly what was taken out. The whistleblower account has to be taken with a grain of salt, since some whistleblowers are selfless and patriotic while others are selfish and motivated by personal and political gain. And while withholding financial aid to Ukraine would certainly raise some red flags, no direct connection has been established to date.

We also shouldn’t forget that politics is, in part, an element of theatrical performance. When Democrats were faced with Clinton’s impeachment, they claimed it was a terrible process that weakened democracy. When it comes to Trump’s impeachment, Democrats now feel it’s an important process to strengthen democracy.

How will this scenario play out?

The Democratic-controlled House of Representatives will likely impeach Trump within a few months. They’re taking an enormous gamble in dividing the US along party political lines, and could be putting some elected officials and the party’s presidential ambitions at huge risk. Nevertheless, they thoroughly dislike everything about this President and believe he’s been a national embarrassment. So, they’re going to move forward. Even if the impeachment inquiry ultimately produces compelling testimonies and valuable information that would exonerate Trump, their minds are made up.

The Republican-controlled Senate will then vote on Trump’s impeachment, and likely acquit him. Whatever their personal feelings about this President, his political future is tied to theirs. This matter isn’t as clear-cut as Richard Nixon’s conduct over Watergate, and what we know about Trump and Ukraine so far makes it more of a questionable decision than an impeachable offence. Plus, if the Republicans sink the political fortunes of their own President, plenty of voters will take it out on them next year. Long story short, they will support Trump until the bitter end.

Donald Trump’s political adventure has to end in one of two ways. He’s either defeated in the 2020 presidential election, or he wins and steps down in 2024 (as mandated by the Constitution) after two presidential terms. Anything else, including these farcical impeachment hearings, serves as nothing more than a political sideshow that’s delaying the inevitable conclusion.