"Biden Defeats Trump"? I wouldn’t bet on it

As you’ve probably heard, Donald Trump looks set to lose the 2020 presidential election. He has recently suffered the worst approval ratings of any post-war president and, according to FiveThirtyEight, the US polling website, remains an average of nine points behind his opponent, Joe Biden. In the last fortnight alone, he has replaced his campaign manager, cancelled plans for his party’s convention and, in a moment of uncharacteristic humility, admitted that “nobody likes” him.

But in the midst of a global pandemic, the worst drop in the US economy on record and levels of social unrest not seen since the Sixties, a lot could change between now and election day. The discovery of a Covid vaccine would likely boost Trump’s numbers and, not only does Biden continue to make gaffes but, his much-anticipated choice for running mate, whose identity will be revealed in a matter of days, could weaken his campaign.

With 91 days to go until election day, a look back at American history offers some suggestions as to what the struggling 45^th President might do next.

He could quit

Donald Trump’s appetite for winning is well documented, and yet the vast majority of the polling data suggests that he will lose the 2020 election. A similar fate awaited an equally competitive president, Lyndon Johnson, in 1968. By then an unpopular figure following the deterioration of the US position in Vietnam, Johnson faced challenges from fellow Democrats including his sworn enemy Robert Kennedy. He surprised the country when he announced live from the Oval Office that he would not “seek” or “accept” the Democratic presidential nomination.

However, only six presidents have chosen not to seek re-election, and never as the presumptive nominee of their party, which Trump now is, having won the Republican primaries. In 1992, the third-party candidate, Ross Perot, did withdraw his candidacy in July, only to re-enter the race again in October.

He could cheat

Richard Nixon is not the only American president to have cheated, but he is the most famous. The suffix “gate”, which it is customary now to adjoin to any political scandal, comes from the Watergate scandal which engulfed and ultimately ended his presidency. During the 1972 presidential election, several burglars with connections to the Nixon administration broke into Democrat offices at the Watergate Complex in Washington and were caught stealing documents and installing wiretaps. Nixon went on to win a landslide in that election but resigned two years later after the fallout from Watergate, which almost resulted in his impeachment. This isn’t to say that Trump will cheat, but he wouldn’t be the first.

He could delay the election

Trump has suggested that the upcoming presidential election should be delayed, something which has never been done in the 244 years of the Republic. Following widespread condemnation, including from his own party, he has since backtracked from this suggestion — but when did convention ever get in the way of Donald Trump?

He could lose and go quietly (ish)

If Trump loses the 2020 election, he will join the prestigious club of eleven one-term presidents. This includes the nineteenth-century presidents whom most people don’t know, as well as more recent presidents such as Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W Bush. If Trump were to lose and go quietly, for the want of a better word, he would have not only a memoir and presidential library to fall back on, but also his business empire and, reportedly, plans for a new media empire too.

He could contest the result

Trump continues to rail against mail-in voting, a marked feature of this election due to Covid-19. This is fuelling fears that he will not accept the result if he loses. He would not be the first. American history is littered with controversial and contested election results, perhaps the most notable of which was the 2000 election between Al Gore and George W. Bush, which was decided by the US Supreme Court. Perhaps a more instructive case for our own times, however, is the 1876 election, which hinged on disputed returns from three states. While Congress debated the issue, a backroom deal was orchestrated known as the Compromise of 1877, in which Democrats agreed to Republican Rutherford B. Hayes becoming president in return for the removal of federal troops from the South.

He could draw

It happens very rarely, but it has happened. In 1800, due to a Constitutional provision which has since been amended, the Republican candidates for president and vice president, Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr, ended up tied. Under the Constitution, when a presidential election is tied it is decided by a ballot in the House of Representatives. Jefferson won on the 36^th ballot thanks to the machinations of his nemesis, Alexander Hamilton, who saw Jefferson as a lesser evil than Burr. Today, a presidential candidate needs 270 Electoral College votes to win, so if neither Biden nor Trump reach 270, or get 269 each, expect a bitter fight on Capitol Hill.

He could surprise everyone — again

Of course, Donald Trump’s victory surprised the pollsters and pundits in 2016, so who’s to say he won’t do so again? The polls tend to overlook both unregistered and “Shy Trump” voters, the backbone of Trump’s supposed “Silent Majority”. Moreover, a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996 gives Trump a 91 per cent chance of victory based on his and Biden’s respective performance in the primaries. And don’t forget that a lot can change in the final weeks of a presidential campaign — think of the Comey Letter in 2016. Everyone thought that Thomas Dewey would win the 1948 election — the Chicago Daily Tribune even printed “Dewey Defeats Truman” as its headline the day before polls closed. And yet Truman won.

To be sure, Trump should be concerned by the fact that, since 1976, three of the four sitting presidents who were also behind in the polls at this stage of the race went on to lose, and the one who didn’t was less than two points behind, not nine. But he can also take solace from American history and the number of options which losing candidates have proven to have. “Biden Defeats Trump”? I wouldn’t bet on it.