Boris Johnson has won. What now?
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Boris’s thumping victory on Tuesday came as no surprise to anyone. But the event in the Queen Elizabeth II Centre nonetheless gave us some valuable insight into how the new Prime Minsiter’s tenure in Downing Street will look. Four aspects in particular deserve immediate further scrutiny.
First, the new Prime Minister’s victory over his opponent was very convincing indeed – but couldn’t be called a pulverisation. For the sake of Boris, the Party and the country at large, that was probably the best possible outcome. With 66% of the vote, Boris has a mandate to do what he likes with his cabinet (and so should be able to revive the seemingly defunct concept of collective responsibility), but Hunt’s supporters – many of whom are the active young Conservatives the Party so desperately needs – need not feel humiliated or disillusioned with party politics: given the circumstances, 33% was reasonably respectable.
Second, the BBC is reporting that Johnson and Hunt had a long conversation in the green room behind the scenes at the announcement event, which would explain the slight delay before the announcement. Jeremy Hunt is very keen to stay on at the Foreign Office, and it seems likely that he was asking Boris to leave him there for the sake of stability. Did they manage to reach an accommodation? Hunt’s enthusiastic embrace of his opponent would suggest they did, but if that’s the case, Boris has got himself into a sticky situation before he even gets through the door of Number 10: if Sajid Javid has bagged Number Number 11 (as reports would suggest) and Jeremy Hunt is going back to the Foreign Office, Boris has very little room to manouvere when it comes to his promise to put a woman in one of the three great offices of state. The whispers that Priti Patel is heading to the Home Office are getting louder by the minute.
Thirdly, and perhaps most importantly, today taught us that Boris isn’t changing his style now he’s got his hands on the prize. His speech was chockablock with jokes and bad puns, suggesting the new Prime Minister isn’t about to undergo a political makeover, as he did as Foreign Secretary. As James Forsyth points out over at The Spectator, this is a risk; will his approach sound flippant when discussing serious issues? On balance, though, it seems sensible. When he tried to be a different kind of figure, it felt forced rather than natural – and the country didn’t take to it.
Finally, today has shown us – as if we didn’t know already – that a General Election is coming sooner rather than later. As Daniel Johnson pointed out in his leader today, every new prime minister, on first arrival in office, is greeted with trepidation, sometimes edging into scepticism. But the Gaukward squad isn’t just sceptical – it is baying for Boris’s blood. On Monday, former Foreign Office minister Alan Duncan launched a blistering pre-emptive attack on the new Prime Minister, saying he feared Mr Johnson was going to go “smack into a crisis of government” – and this morning, Anne Milton resigned, citing “grave concerns” about the impact of a no deal Brexit on her constituents.
It is quite possible that this dissatisfaction from the Remainer wing of the party will bubble over during the course of the summer, leading to a vote of no confidence in the government, and a General Election in the autumn.
On the other hand, of course, it remains possible that the giddy excitement generated by Boris in the other factions of the party will prove more powerful than the negativity; riding a wave of optimism, Boris may succeed where Theresa May failed and get a Brexit deal through Parliament by 31st October. In which case, could the new Prime Minister – a man who, remember, craves popularity and loves to be loved – really resist the temptation of capitalising on his victory by calling a General Election in the spring? His gung-ho speech today, packed with references to the destruction of Jeremy Corbyn, would suggest not.
Tomorrow, Boris Johnson will make his first speech as Prime Minister – and may even announce his first cabinet appointments. We will learn a lot more about him then. Watch this space.
