Does a shock poll show Scotland is heading for independence?

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Does a shock poll show Scotland is heading for independence?

(Photo credit should read OLI SCARFF/AFP via Getty Images)

If its figures are accurate, and Scottish opinion doesn’t change, then the consequences of Ipsos Mori’s latest poll are huge. The United Kingdom looks destined to break up. Supporters of Scottish independence now outnumber opponents by 58-42 per cent: a 16-point margin that is greater than any previous poll has found.

Are those figures right? And, if so, will they last?

It is clear that there has been a shift towards independence this year. In 23 polls logged by the “What Scotland Thinks” website in 2018 and 2019, only one showed a pro-independence, “Yes” lead, and that was by a narrow 52-48 per cent margin. Five surveys between January and May this year showed the contest level-pegging, or very close. But the last nine polls, since June, have all shown “Yes” in the lead. Eight of them, by four different polling companies, have produced similar figures: Yes 52-55 per cent, No 45-48 per cent.

Were I Nicola Sturgeon, I would be reluctant to call an immediate referendum, even if Westminster allowed it. Conventional wisdom, which for once makes good sense, suggests a sustained 60-40 per cent lead is necessary to survive a turbulent referendum campaign. Yet now, Ipsos Mori suggests that the 60-40 target is not far off.

My advice to Ms Sturgeon is: don’t get too excited, at least not yet. A separate poll, by ComRes, with much the same fieldwork dates as Ipsos Mori, reports a 53-47 per cent “Yes” lead — in line with other polls in the past four months, rather than a great leap forward for the independence campaign. We need two or three more polls showing big “Yes” leads before we can be sure that we are currently seeing an autumn surge towards independence.

As relevant, perhaps more so, are the prospects for next May’s elections to the Scottish Parliament. Again, Ipsos Mori’s figures show more support for the SNP than ComRes. But both suggest that the SNP will win the elections easily. Unless opinion changes — and, of course, with more than six months to go, that is possible — the only real doubt is whether the SNP will secure an outright majority on its own, or need the support of Scotland’s Greens. Either way, there will be a majority in Scotland’s new parliament for the right to call a fresh referendum.

However, a referendum needs an Act of Parliament — the Westminster Parliament, not Holyrood. The Conservatives have set their face against this; and with a majority of 80, they have the numbers to thwart the SNP. In practical terms, a referendum looks out of the question as long as the Conservatives remain in office — that is, until after Britain’s next general election, which will probably be in 2024.

Things could then get interesting. Labour starts so far behind the Tories that a majority Labour government looks unlikely. But a minority Labour government, ruling with the explicit or tacit consent of the SNP and Liberal Democrats, is eminently possible. And, of course, as part of any deal, the SNP would insist that Labour backed a Bill allowing an independence referendum.

But will the SNP then be so keen? Whatever the precise lead that “Yes” currently enjoys north of the order, it is undoubtedly boosted by the existence of a Conservative government that three in four Scots rejected last December — and one that is imposing a Brexit policy on a country that voted by a big majority to stay in the EU.

Here, then, is the SNP’s problem. A referendum is most likely to be held at a time when two of the main drivers of pro-independence sentiment have been banished — a Conservative government and anti-EU policies. Suppose a Labour-led government post-2024 sought a close relationship with EU, with something akin to the benefits of the single market and customs union. Suppose it enhanced Holyrood’s powers. Suppose it also legislated, a little further down the line, for a referendum in 2026 or 2027 and actually insisted on it being held, in order to clear the air. I’m not sure that the appetite for independence would be as strong as it appears today, even if Ipsos Mori’s latest figures are spot on. The result could well be another majority for preserving the United Kingdom.

Am I confident of that prediction? No: too much can happen in the next few years to change the outcome. Nevertheless: my final piece of advice to Nicola Sturgeon is: be careful what you wish for.

Member ratings
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  • Agree with arguments: 72%
103 ratings - view all

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