If Taylor Swift cares about the future, she should get married and have kids
Taylor Swift can act to impact the future of America. The record-breaking singer-songwriter and 2023 Time’s Person of the Year wields an amazing amount of soft power. Taylor’s sold-out world tour caused mass hysteria in the race for tickets and one performance even caused a small earthquake. But her greatest power may be political: 18 per cent of US voters say they are more or significantly more likely to vote for a presidential candidate endorsed by Taylor.
The Taylor Effect is widespread. In the run up to the last presidential election in 2019, Taylor posted a short message on Instagram encouraging her then 272 million followers to register to vote. Just this nudge was enough to send more 35,000 people through the website to register. Since dating the American footballer Travis Kelce, who plays for the Kansas City Chiefs, the National Football League (NFL) has reported an increased brand value of over $122 million in just a few months. Her influence on women is even more striking: 53 per cent more girls aged 12 to 17 are now watching NFL.
Taylor may be one of the most influential and successful women in the world, but if she really wants to influence the future of America, and the West, for the long term, she should employ the Taylor effect to tackle one of America’s biggest problems: the decline in marriage and birth rates.
The US marriage rate is on the downturn. In 2023 there were 14.9 marriages per 1,000 women, down from 16.3 a decade earlier. A quarter of 40 year olds in America have never married. A Pew Research Center study of 130 countries found that the US is the world leader in family breakdown. The average age of marriage is rising too. In the US the average age of a bride is 28; in 1980 it was 22. The UK is following suit. For the first time ever in British history, fewer than half of adults are married.
Of course, women should marry if and when they want to – and no one is proposing a return to the 1980s or any other past era. But the average age of marriage and the marriage rate will both have an influence on when and whether women have children, and hence on how many children are born. In the US, the UK and indeed around the world in developed nations, the birth rate is following a steady decline. Forty-three states in the US recorded their lowest general fertility rate in three decades. The current UK fertility rate, which is the average number of children per woman, is 1.6 and falling.
This may not seem alarming until you realise that the replacement rate needed to maintain the current population is 2.1. Over time this impact will be seismic. Disregarding immigration, in only two generations’ time the UK will have 40 per cent fewer births than today. While a falling birth rate may reduce costs in the short term, within decades Governments will face resource challenges, drawing on a smaller pool of workers to fund the pensions of an ageing population and to provide care. Immigration alone cannot solve this issue, as many countries across the world are following a similar trend. Many countries will face serious shortages of workers as cheap labour from abroad begins to dry up.
These are a large set of issues to lay at a pop star’s door. Taylor Swift can’t solve them, but she could maybe nudge the dial. We need more positive public figures to embrace the joys of marriage and motherhood, just as we need a serious reckoning about the declining fertility rate. Taylor’s fans have grown up with her, walking with her through teenage heartbreak, coming-of-age confusion and finding their feet as professional women. The next chapter could be equally symbiotic.
When Kelce comes asking down on one knee, Taylor’s answer should be clear. “It’s a love story, baby, just say ‘Yes’.”
Sophia Worringer is a researcher and political commentator.
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