It’s not too late for Labour to close the gap by riding a wave of hope
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Labour’s campaign was hoping for a big boost last week. It didn’t quite happen. As the party launched its manifesto and Jeremy Corbyn achieved a draw in the TV debate with Boris Johnson, supporters hoped that the kind of radical turnaround seen (but not believed) at about this point during the 2017 campaign would happen again.
While there are definitely signs of the polling gap between Labour and the Tories narrowing, the change hasn’t been dramatic. A party that looked as if it could, should and would win after their surprise performance two years ago is now filled with activists cheering the thought that Boris Johnson might not get an overall majority.
Yet every time activists got some good news, it was then followed by another blow to Labour. Increasingly this election is seeming like a race to the bottom, not the top. On the day the party started to rise in the polls, the Chief Rabbi made an extraordinary political intervention, warning that Jeremy Corbyn was not fit to hold office. Just as Labour were about to start the launch of its race and faith manifesto, the anti-Semitism problem reared its very ugly head again.
That the Tories spent the same day battling their own accusations of racism is scant comfort. Even Michael Gove getting rightly pilloried for trying to start a war of words with Stormzy wasn’t really enough to cheer Labour spirits. Especially those who tuned in to Corbyn’s disastrous interview with Andrew Neil. Again, the only comfort comes from knowing it’s Johnson’s turn next. An election of competing car crashes is not inspiring.
Part of Labour’s problem is that activists failed to properly build on what they got so right in 2017. The positivity that all but the die-hard never-Corbynites felt coming out of that election could have led to a united party, focused on winning the next election and getting rid of the Tories. Instead the Corbynite wing of the party turned their confidence into hubris. They trained their sights, not on the transformation of the country, but of the Labour Party.
As the Tories faltered and Parliament stalled, Labour constantly called for an election. But instead of getting the party into election mode, they prioritised deselections of MPs while freezing selections in winnable seats. So when the inevitable election was called, Labour’s first week of the campaign was a series of stories about undignified scrambles to place favoured sons and daughters in safe seats and embarrassing stories about candidates who hadn’t been properly vetted.
The party has also failed to properly plan for the difference between a late spring and a winter election. In 2017, much of Labour’s momentum was built by holding lots of outdoor, local television-friendly rallies. These are harder to do in the winter. They had a great turnout outside the leaders’ debate in Sheffield Hallam, but they need to be replicating such gatherings during daylight hours up and down the country for them to have the same effect.
The upside for Labour is that they are closing the gap — and it isn’t too late. The campaign needs to kick into a much more positive mode, relentlessly focused around a few key policies. Where Boris Johnson is not trusted to tell the truth, Labour are not trusted to deliver. Labour policies are popular in the abstract, but in focus groups there is an unease about whether the leadership will be able to make them happen. The manifesto is certainly ambitious, and there is something in there for everyone. But now they should focus on a few totemic areas and pound them remorselessly.
As well as honing the message, they should also be getting the faces of cheering supporters and Labour activists out there. Labour should present itself as the party that looks and sounds like the nation and knows how to talk to it. And to show how Labour is more than capable of delivery, they should put those who are already delivering at the front of the campaign. Andy Burnham, Steve Rotherham, Marvin Rees and Sadiq Khan should be giving the message that Labour has a record of delivery, alongside other local government leaders, some of whom are even (*whisper it*) women.
The Tories are having a poor campaign. Again. The voters are sick of everyone. Again. Labour win when they can create and capture a mood of optimism. That’s harder in winter than summer. But it can’t be impossible. In the final fortnight, it will be by finding that mood and riding it that Labour’s best hope lies.
