Never Nigel: Farage won’t make it to No 10

“Led by Nigel Farage, the UK’s far-Right emerges as the Government’s main opponent.” This is the headline in Le Monde this week on politics in Britain. The article by the paper’s fine London correspondent reflected the latest opinion polls showing Reform ahead of Labour and the Conservatives.

The BBC — which massively promoted Farage in the decade leading up to the Brexit vote in 2016, especially on Today and Question Time — is back in love with its hero.

The Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, is also boosting Farage by honouring him with a speech denouncing his tax, spend and run-up debt policies as reminiscent of Liz Truss. The former metal trader must be in politics’ seventh heaven at such promotion by the BBC and Downing Street. But there is no election in sight for several years and the Labour Government led by Starmer has suffered from a largely self-inflicted poor start to his term in office.

I have watched Farage closely for 20 years and in person we get on well. He is an entertainer, with a big mouth like Donald Trump and much in common with assorted European anti-immigrant, Muslim-hostile, ethnonationalist populists.

In his years of unchallenging BBC appearances Farage has always performed well.  British voters use by-elections and municipal elections to register a protest vote.  In the Runcorn parliamentary by-election and in a few council elections in mainly rural areas, ignored by mainstream politicians, voters showed their disappointment at the failure of the Brexit-era Tory party to make good any of the promises of the last five Conservative prime ministers in Downing Street.

Labour was also punished for some bizarre political errors committed in the first months of a completely inexperienced Labour government. Don’t forget: seven out of ten voters did not vote for Sir Keir Starmer 10 months ago. The 5-party share-out of votes in Britain’s simple majority system used in single seat constituencies meant that on 33% of the vote Labour has 411 MPs  (out of 650) – an enormous parliamentary majority by British standards.

But when voters want to register a protest in what rightly or wrongly are seen as relatively unimportant municipal elections, Labour as the governing party is the first target of all the discontent.

Equally important as the voting intention polls four years before a general election was a You Gov poll on 27 May showing there was very poor support for Farage to be prime minister.

You Gov pollsters noted that 44% of Britons had said they would prefer Starmer to be prime minister over 29% for Farage. Even the LibDem leader Sir Ed Davey beat Farage by a huge 41%-27% as someone voters think can be Prime Minister. So, by a smaller margin, did Kemi Badenoch, even though all three parties lag behind Reform in the polls.

YouGov goes on “Those currently intending to vote Lib Dem and Green are 17 points and 15 points respectively more likely to favour Starmer when his opponent is Farage rather than Badenoch, with a similar rate of increase among current Tory voters, as well as a nine-point increase among current Labour voters.”

In other words, voters will give Farage his headlines in marginal elections of little consequence to their lives. But when asked if they prefer Farage as prime minister to the current occupant of No 10, Sir Keir Starmer, or the Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch, Farage scores very poorly.

Reform UK has just five out of 650 MPs in the Commons. Voters like using Farage as a weapon to punish both the current Prime Minister and his Brexit era predecessors. But would they like him to replace them in Downing Street? Not likely.

He is like Roy Jenkins, Enoch Powell, or David Owen: all were talked up as “breaking the mould” politicians, but never made it into Nunber 10. In fact no-one has ever successfully won power starting with just five fawning MPs that make little impression on a public that does not inhabit  the inside track hothouse of political commentators.

Once a week I go out to knock on doors of voters where I live in London to ask about their voting intentions. Labour council candidates are struggling at the moment. But I find no one mentioning Farage positively, let alone suggesting he has the stature to be prime minister.

If the Tories had a more convincing leader no-one would take much notice of a grouplet of 5 MPs, with its other star performer Rupert Lowe walking out in protest at Farage’s one man-show and cult of personality leadership style.

Farage is a phenomenon and should never be underestimated.  Yet. Yet. I may be wrong, very wrong, but after more than half a century in politics I am not convinced he will be prime minister.

Some argue, including Alan Catzefelis of this parish, that moving to a proportional representation electoral system would solve the problem. Farage is a life-long PR fan. Yet PR in most European governments this century has seen a breakdown in governability, a rise in open 1930s nationalist populist politics, the rise of racist replacement theory politics, a failure to face up to Putin,  and no answer to the growing poverty of the non-university educated population and their broken impoverished communities.

Politics is in a bad way in the UK, but neither Farage nor PR are the solutions.

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