Ten Predictions for 2025

As 2025 looms on the horizon, the forces of political, social, and economic disruption show no signs of letting up. Here are my ten predictions for the coming year, delivered with a touch of scepticism and a nod to the absurdities of our age.

1. Strife on the Right of UK Politics
   The UK’s political right is set to descend further into bitter civil war. Reform and the Conservative Party will dig their trenches, with Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage exchanging rhetorical potshots from opposing sides. The membership controversies over Christmas are merely a prelude. Tory defections to Reform will become almost routine as frustration with Badenoch’s leadership mounts. By the May local elections, the Conservatives will suffer losses—not to Labour (who will fare poorly, though not as disastrously as some have predicted)—but to an increasingly energised Reform.
2. Starmer: Uninspiring Yet Unassailable
   Despite feverish speculation, the notion that Nigel Farage could march triumphantly into Number 10 is fanciful at best. The division of the Right ensures that no single leader will muster the necessary momentum. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats will continue their time-honoured tradition of dithering on the fringes. Ed Davey, with his uncanny knack for squandering golden opportunities, will bungle a perfectly clear political niche. For Keir Starmer, this fragmented landscape is a godsend. He’ll remain in pole position—not through any brilliance of his own but thanks to the self-inflicted idiocy of his competitors. Sometimes, in politics, survival isn’t about shining; it’s about staying upright while everyone else collapses.
3. The Church of England’s Perpetual Crisis
   The Church of England will continue its well-practised stumble from one controversy to another, incapable of addressing its internal crises. A cocktail of indecision and apathy at the top will render it increasingly irrelevant in British life. This is part of a broader trend within Western Christianity, which remains paralysed by its inability to reconcile historical guilt with a coherent vision for the future. Expect plenty of handwringing and performative contrition but little in the way of decisive action.
4. Centrist Europe: Blindsided by Migration
   Europe’s centrist parties will persist in their deer-in-the-headlights approach to migration. Their failure to adopt a global perspective will leave them exposed to the populist Right, which thrives on exploiting localised fears. Until centrists confront the structural drivers of migration—climate change, economic disparity, conflict, and the glaring lack of global cooperation—they will remain reactive, firefighting rather than reforming.
5. Trump’s Hollow Promises
   Donald Trump will continue to dominate headlines with his trademark cocktail of bombast and bravado. Grandiose promises of sweeping change will flow thick and fast. But, as ever, Trump’s true genius lies in spectacle, not delivery. To expect him to fulfil his pledges is to misunderstand his political essence. His allure lies not in what he achieves but in the theatre he creates—and for his loyal following, this is more than enough.
6. Elon Musk vs. Donald Trump
   Speaking of colossal egos, 2025 will witness an explosive clash between Trump and Elon Musk as they vie for dominance. The Republican Party simply isn’t big enough for the two of them. Their feud will deliver moments of high comedy and higher concern, sending shockwaves through politics, technology, and the ever-raging culture wars. Get the popcorn ready—this one promises fireworks.
7. The Slow Fall of Vladimir Putin
   The full extent of Vladimir Putin’s humiliation in Ukraine is only beginning to unfold. Despite Trump’s ambitions, Congress is unlikely to allow a wholesale withdrawal of support for Ukraine. Putin’s position will grow ever more tenuous, and here’s a bold prediction: by the end of 2025, he’ll be out of power. His departure will mark a seismic shift in global geopolitics, although Trump will undoubtedly try to take the credit.
8. China’s Looming Debt Crisis
   China’s local governments are drowning in unsustainable debt, a ticking time bomb for its economy. This financial instability, coupled with growing political pressures, will spell serious trouble for Xi Jinping. The repercussions will ripple across the globe, reshaping trade, diplomacy, and economic alliances.
9. The Predictable Chaos of the Middle East
   The Middle East will maintain its time-honoured tradition of defying expectations. Shifting alliances, sudden escalations, and unanticipated developments will dominate the headlines. But in 2025, the spotlight will shift to Iran, where the political noose will tighten further around the country’s leadership. The ultimate beneficiary? Mohammed bin Salman. By the year’s end, the Saudi crown prince will have cemented his role as the de facto leader of the Middle East.
10. All Predictions Reflect the Forecaster
    As Warren Buffett famously said, “Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.” These predictions are no exception. They lay bare my biases, preoccupations, and the stories I find most compelling. Like much of the Western media, I’m preoccupied with the impacts of populism and the threats posed by authoritarian regimes in China and Russia. Meanwhile, I’m likely missing something glaringly obvious. Will it be climate catastrophe? A nuclear showdown? The defeat of cancer? An AI-driven meltdown? The second great banking collapse of the 21st century? The return of Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson?

The only truly safe prediction? Most of these forecasts will age poorly—but, let’s hope, gloriously so.

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