The dream of freedom, from Kyiv to Canberra
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Many people still think Ukraine is a faraway country and some evidently still know very little about it. (Casting doubt on its independence by referring to “the Ukraine” is a giveaway, for instance.) The reality, of course, is that it isn’t far at all from London to Kyiv: just 1,350 miles as the crow flies.
From Kyiv to Canberra is 9,250 miles, but events on one side of our interdependent world quickly have an impact on the other. The most important strategic consequence of the war in Ukraine may well prove to be felt far from Europe, in a different hemisphere and on the opposite extremity of another continent.
It looks increasingly likely that the Chinese have decided to postpone indefinitely their own planned invasion of Taiwan. As readers of TheArticle will be aware, recently the long-standing threat by Communist China to assert its sovereignty over this island of freedom and democracy that lies just 110 miles from the mainland had begun to look imminent. Xi Jinping and his “wolf warrior” diplomacy had sounded ever more bellicose.
Only last October the Chinese President repeated his pledge last July to “smash” any formal declaration of independence by Taiwan: “The historical task of the complete reunification of the motherland”, he declared, “must be fulfilled and will definitely be fulfilled.” Chinese military and naval activity in the Taiwan Strait had been steadily increasing, causing the US and its allies (including Britain) to step up deterrence. With Beijing more menacing than ever before, the stage seemed set for war, with potentially catastrophic consequences.
Then came Ukraine. China has refused to condemn the Russian invasion, but it has stopped short of outright diplomatic, let alone military, support. The failure of Putin’s forces to take Kyiv and their reverses on the battlefield appear to have taken Beijing by surprise, as has the strength and unity of the Western response. The Chinese military — which, unlike its Russian counterpart, has not fought a war for generations — should have been cured of any illusion that it would be easy to mount a combined operation on the colossal scale that would be necessary to defeat and occupy Taiwan. In Beijing, the lessons of Ukraine will now have to be learned. In Taipei, the prevailing view is that this has bought the Taiwanese time — four years is their best guess — in which to rearm.
The latest assessment of the Sino-Russian relationship by British intelligence has just been revealed. Sir Jeremy Fleming, the head of GCHQ, told an audience in Canberra that China was exploiting Russian economic weakness. “We can see China is seizing the opportunity to purchase cheap hydro-carbons from Russia at the moment.” After analysing the reasons for Putin’s miscalculation, he added that “a China that wants to set the rules of the road — the norms for a new global governance — is not well served by close alliance with a regime that wilfully and illegally ignores them all.”
On a visit to Norway, Ben Wallace was more blunt: China was “the inevitable winner” from Russia’s failure and its support has been “lukewarm at best”. The Defence Secretary added: “The Russians are about to discover that they are really quite alone.” Xi is unlikely to relish sharing Putin’s fate.
The relevance of Ukraine to China’s strategic posture has been noticed down under. The Australians have just welcomed a virtual address to their Parliament from Volodymyr Zelensky. Even before the speech, Prime Minister Scott Morrison promised a package of military assistance, including drones and tactical decoys. The Ukrainian President was alert to the Taiwan angle, warning that Russia must be stopped to deter other aggressors: “No leader in the world should count on being unpublishable if they’re thinking about prospective war.” He was particularly concerned that nuclear blackmail should be turned against the blackmailer. It isn’t only Putin who plays this game. Lately, China has shown images of “doomsday trains” designed to shuttle its nuclear missiles around the country to make them harder to target.
Zelensky reminded his audience about Flight MH17, the airliner shot down over Ukraine in 2014, in which 28 Australians died. Eight years later, he said, the Russians are still hiding those responsible and denying compensation to the victims. If Russia had been punished properly for that atrocity, Zelensky declared, it would not now be invading Ukraine.
This was a powerful message to bring home to Australia: that what happens in Europe affects them, too. He implored them to share its weapons: “In Ukraine they will do much more for our common freedom, for our common security, than remaining parked on your land.” Coming to his main point, he appealed to Australians who, despite the vast distance, had a similar vision: “Geography doesn’t matter then. What matters is humanity, and the dream. The dream of bringing back peaceful life. The dream that we will implement, together.”
That word, “dream”, had a special resonance for Zelensky. The largest aeroplane in the world, the Dream, had been destroyed by the Russians, he told them, but they could not destroy the dream of freedom and independence. “We know our dream is undefeatable.”
The Ukrainian President, as usual, is right: this dream, the dream of all humanity, crosses borders and survives even the destruction of cities. Geography gives way to history and the Ukrainians are certainly making history. The failure of Russian aggression should give heart to all those who are resisting tyranny elsewhere. And it should give other tyrants pause. If Putin’s humiliation and isolation has stayed the hand of Xi Jinping, the sacrifice of so many lives in Ukraine is not in vain.
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