The end of Jeremy Corbyn

Inevitably, the talk turns to the next Labour leader. Even if no party wins a majority this week, and even if Labour ends up as part of a technical government, convened to arrange a new EU referendum, Labour will have reached the end of the Corbyn era.

If voters are not persuaded by the “Get Brexit Done” mantra and do not give Boris Johnson his majority, it is equally unlikely that Corbyn will get anywhere close to the 330 seats he needs to form a majority Labour government. The best he can hope for is to deny Johnson an all-out victory.

At that point, Corbyn could reasonably declare “mission accomplished”. He would have won his three-point campaign to move Labour significantly to the left, end the nine years of Tory austerity politics, and humiliate a controversial Conservative leader.

What’s more, in Brussels last week, Michel Barnier told me the EU would have no problem with working with Labour, just as his team is ready to begin the years of talks on a new EU-UK relationship post-Brexit. He did not use the term “oven-ready” but it is clear his now very experienced and expert team of Brexit negotiators can easily satisfy Labour’s wish for a new Political Declaration that allows the UK to leave the EU in a less harmful way than the hard Brexit both May and Johnson have advocated.

Corbyn is good at campaigning, as he’s showed in the three successful campaigns he’s run since 2015 — two to secure his leadership and one to deny May her majority in 2017. If he wins the ultimate prize of ending nine years of Tory rule, his triumph as an effective campaigner will be complete.

But Corbyn, already in his eighth decade, cannot reasonably expect to advance through his seventies while bearing the huge burden of leading the country. Moreover, assuming we have a no-majority parliament followed by a second referendum, after that the country will need a majority government.

All this leads inexorably to the fact that Labour needs a new leader. Almost any potential candidate would draw a line under the anti-Semitism issue that has dogged Corbyn and severely damaged the Labour campaign.

He is not an anti-Semite in the classic Jew-baiting sense. Corbyn’s problem is that his life-long dislike of Israel has led to decades of uncritical support for most pro-Palestinian groups. But he has done this without any grasp of the views that these groups have on Jews. A new Labour leader can start rebuilding relations with Britain’s Jews.

The debate over Labour’s next leader is open. Three points stand out. First, the talk about Corbynites versus Blairites is out of date. Blair’s premiership ended 12 years ago. The New Labour model that won in 1997 is nearly 30 years old.

The contest for a new Labour leader will be based on today’s priorities — climate change and the reform of global capitalism.

It is hard to see another man emerging as the Labour leader. Corbynism is the last expression of traditional Labour political masculinity. His clique is dominated by tight controlling men like the Wykehamist Seumas Milne and  the Merseyside trade unionist, Len McCluskey. Corbyn and McDonnell, are part of the late middle-aged Labour hard left — their time is past.

There are two stand-out potential successors to Corbyn. Emily Thornberry is warm and articulate. She is advised by Damian McBride, one of the great Labour strategists, who learned his trade under Gordon Brown. Whatever his faults, Brown helped to win and keep Labour in power for 13 years.

Thornberry grew up in poverty in a council flat as her father, a posh public school boy, betrayed his wife and family in a way which has echoes today in our top politics.

The other woman in the frame is the Salford solicitor, Rebecca “Becky” Long-Bailey who is 20 years younger than Thornberry. A catholic, she is regularly depicted as John McDonnell’s protégé. But this label will soon be meaningless. Like Harold Wilson, a cautious, calculating northerner, she cultivates her image as a left-winger but also has the skill to widen Labour’s appeal.

Whether Johnson wins or we move to a no majority government, the Corbyn era is drawing to its close. The race for the succession is on.