The intelligence did not justify Soleimani’s assassination

Concerns over Iranian retaliation or a complete nuclear break-out in the wake of the killing of Qasem Soleimani are understandable, but the real costs for the United States will be slower and deeper — these will affect Iran’s politics and America’s standing in the region.

Soleimani was no stateless terrorist; rather, he was a legitimate leader of a legitimate — and recognised — government with which the United States was not formally at war. His role as a young officer in the war against Iraq made him a hero at home, including among those who oppose the regime.

Dubbed “the leader from the shadows and nightmare of [the] enemy,” he also collaborated with the United States and played a critical role in fighting ISIS. His standing in the region increased, and he became a public figure, with a political position and public appearances. Yet this departure from the shadows also brought him to the attention of Washington, eventually leading to his assassination.

Why Trump opted for assassination remains a puzzle. It surely distracted attention from the impeachment proceedings. To say that Soleimani had been responsible for thousands of deaths may well be true, but by that standard any commanding general who had served in a war zone would also be a candidate for assassination.

The easiest explanation is pique over the rioting at the US embassy in Baghdad, never mind that the rioters were Iraqis, even if they were encouraged by Iran. In any case, what seems clear is that the intelligence did not support an imminent major Iranian threat that would have justified pre-emptive killing under international law. The administration has provided no such evidence publicly, and members of Congress who have been briefed generally have described business as usual in a tumultuous region.

Predictably, the Iraqi parliament voted in favour of expelling US troops, and that perhaps offers a clue. Viewing Trump as a self-centred real estate negotiator, Soleimani’s killing could let him save face for the upcoming elections as he negotiates with Iraq, and implicitly Iran as well, over the terms of America’s withdrawal. On past form, he’ll seek to make Iraq pay the costs of supporting US troops — never mind that it can no more do so than Mexico could pay for the infamous wall — and argue that he recovered all the money Obama spent. The argument will convince no one except his base, but that is what he cares about.

At least in the short run, no act could have served better to silence opposition to the Iranian regime. While Soleimani was close to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, paradoxically, his killing can only undercut those Iranians, like President Rouhani, who still held out hope for some dealings with the United States.

Trump only added insult to injury by threatening strikes on 52 Iranian sites, including some that are of irreplaceable cultural value. This is hardly the time, and Iran hardly the place, to emulate the Taliban in Afghanistan, threatening to destroy human history.

Whether Americans like it or not, the Iranian regime has survived for forty years, and as such, it reflects Iran’s long culture of survival. The country was overrun several times, and each time appeared to accept the invaders while quietly working to subvert the occupations. It is a strategy based on wisdom, not force. Even today, some small villages in the country appear to accept the Arab conquest and Islam, but in fact have merely changed the words — beneath the surface they retain their Zorastrian beliefs and Persian heritage.

That culture of wisdom makes the Iranian government thoughtful in responding, and what culture suggests, current circumstances drive home: war cannot be ruled out, but Iran has no reason to do anything soon, and perhaps no reason to do anything at all in immediate response. It need only stand by while Iraq argues about how to expel Americans, and others in the region protest against the naked US violation of Iranian sovereignty.

Iran can abide by the age-old wisdom: don’t interrupt your enemy while he is doing something stupid. Meanwhile, Russia’s Putin can only be smirking at his own good fortune. For he, too, need not do anything but watch his stature as a power broker in the region rise.