The story of Nigel: how Farage remade British politics

Love him or hate him, Nigel Farage has to be seen as the totemic figure in post-Thatcher British politics. No Farage, no Brexit. His legacy is already indelibly marked on the political landscape, a testament to his influence beyond the confines of Westminster. So far Parliament has eluded him, but now he is standing in Clacton — once the stronghold of Douglas Carswell, UKIP’s only MP, and probably Reform’s most winnable constituency.

So, is this the eighth time lucky for Farage’s long-sought seat in the House of Commons? Here’s a potted history of Farage’s electoral history so far.

Farage’s first foray into parliamentary politics was in North Thanet in 1997, where he finished fourth. UKIP was in its infancy, and Farage was a newcomer. His campaign didn’t resonate with voters in a constituency that remained firmly Conservative.

It’s untrue to state that Farage has had no electoral success. He was elected to the European Parliament in 1999, becoming the MEP for South East England — a seat he held until Brexit. This was thanks to the newly introduced proportional representation system used in EU elections.

But Farage, and UKIP in general, were still desperate to get seats in Westminster. In the 2005 General Election, Farage focused on Thanet South and didn’t do much better than his 1997 effort. He finished fourth, far behind Labour’s Stephen Ladyman. He was still an unknown figure on the national stage. It was clear UKIP lacked the organisational strength and local support necessary to mount a serious challenge in general elections.

The next year, Farage moved on to the Bromley and Chislehurst by-election, where he moved up into third place – but it was a distant third behind the Conservative and Labour candidates. This seat was a Conservative bastion, and Farage’s presence was not enough to disrupt the status quo. The by-election underscored UKIP’s limitations at the time in contesting well-established Tory constituencies even when protest votes were there to be cleaned up.

It was in 2010 that Farage really came to the fore as the UK’s most Marmite politician: an unreformed xenophobe or a man sticking it to the establishment, depending on your viewpoint. By 2010, social media was taking off and this opened up direct ways for UKIP and Farage to communicate with the electorate. It’s through that medium Farage earned notoriety – and began to carve out a niche as the showman leader of a new wave of European populists. He launched an attack, on the floor of the European Parliament, which went viral, on Herman Van Rompuy, the Commission President and ultimate EU establishment figure. Farage accused Van Rompuy of having “the charisma of a damp rag” and “the appearance of a low-grade bank clerk”. This was two months before that year’s general election.

In the 2010 General Election, he stood in Buckingham. The sitting Tory MP, John Bercow, was a pompous Speaker of the House of Commons. By tradition, the major parties do not contest the Speaker’s seat, leaving Farage as a prominent outsider. Farage failed to unseat Bercow, but it did show him the way forward: the barracking thorn in the side of the humourless and out-of-touch British establishment.

It was on polling day during the 2010 General Election that Farage was dragged from the wreckage of a plane with serious injuries, when it crashed after its UKIP-promoting banner became entangled in the tail fin. Farage is no stranger to near-death experiences; he was hit by a car in 1985 and has been diagnosed with cancer.

In the 2015 General Election, Farage went back to Thanet South, and the constituency seemed ripe for the taking. The Conservative incumbent, Craig Mackinlay, won by a margin of 2,800 votes. Farage’s campaign was robust, but the Tories poured in huge resources to retain the seat. There were later allegations of electoral expenses fraud against the Conservative campaign. After a trial Mackinlay was cleared — he is now more famous for surviving sepsis — but one of his constituency staff was found guilty on two counts and given a suspended prison sentence.

Farage’s 2015 General Election performance may have failed to get him a seat in the House of Commons, but it turned out to be one of his greatest victories. During the election battle, the Tories promised a referendum on UK membership of the EU. This was designed to “shoot the UKIP Fox” and rid the party of the blight of Farage once and for all. The promised referendum seemed successful in the short term; it united the Right, affording David Cameron room to attack his former coalition partners, the Lib Dems, in the centre. The result was a sizeable Parliamentary majority in the Commons and all looked rosy in the Conservative electoral garden. But the importance of that referendum promise cannot be overstated. Far from his fox being shot, Farage was only just getting going.

The direct consequence of the 2015 referendum promise led to the 2016 referendum, Brexit victory, the downfall of Cameron, the woolliness of May, the rise of Johnson, the nightmare of Truss, and the stasis of Sunak. The 2015 promise was the genesis of the basket-case Tory Party currently being presented to the electorate. In some ways, you could say 2015 marked the end of Thatcher’s Britain and the start of Farage’s.

So, will Farage succeed in getting into Westminster in 2024? The fact is, it doesn’t really matter; let’s face it, Farage’s influence and success hasn’t been held back because he hasn’t had a seat in Westminster to date. Just by being there, Farage is a black hole into which Sunak will lose votes: Reform will suck in what little allure is left in the Conservative Party.

One might think this is all good news for Keir Starmer. But that is very short-term thinking; the type of thinking that made Cameron promise a referendum in 2015. Farage makes it easy to portray Starmer as the personification of the establishment. It demonstrates Sir Keir’s aloofness and charisma vacuum.

The fact is, to call Farage a serial electoral loser is to miss the point. The point isn’t whether Nigel will get elected. The point is that by standing he will have a huge impact on the election— and beyond.

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