Their rout in Chesham and Amersham signals trouble ahead for the Tories

Last autumn, during a brief hiatus in the lockdown, I met my friend Dave Worral over coffee in Chesham’s old town in Buckinghamshire. Dave ran the Trussell Trust’s Chiltern food bank at the time. It was, he told me rather grimly, doing record business. 

Dave is a level-headed, cheerful soul. But the extent of food poverty in the heart of one of the most affluent parts of the UK was beginning to get him down. More than ten years of austerity – compounded by a punitive Universal Credit system –  had driven more and more families to visit the little shop front on the Broadway and ask for emergency food parcels. 

What kind of people came, I asked Dave?  “You’d be surprised,” he said. “All sorts. Many who have lost their jobs and can’t find another one. Some are professionals.” What do they have in common, if anything? “Mostly they can’t bear the stigma of coming to ask for food. They feel shame.”

The food bank was coming up to its tenth anniversary. It was started a year after the formation of the Tory/Lib Dem coalition government in 2010 and the launch of austerity. 

It has since provided not far short of a quarter of a million meals, surging during winter, struggling to cope like everyone else in the pandemic. To circumvent the obstacles of lockdown, the trustees have taken to handing out grants. These go to local people – often single mothers – who literally don’t know where their next meal is coming from.

I mention Dave because the pasting taken by the Tories in the Chesham and Amersham by-election is being widely portrayed largely as a revolt of the Nimbys in a wealthy area: anger by the well-off at the disruption caused by the HS2 railway project and planning reforms (aka deregulation) that will eat up more precious green spaces with housing. 

No doubt these were a factor. But the aphorism “affluent Buckinghamshire” does not tell the whole story. Other people with other lives and other preoccupations exist here in numbers. 

I know Chesham and Amersham. The constituency marches alongside mine (Buckingham). I often shop in both places. Amersham’s enchanting old town alone has over 150 listed buildings. Its 17th-century market hall is a little Restoration masterpiece. 

As a constituency, Chesham and Amersham is a mixed bag. It has an ageing white population and a high concentration of voters from ethnic minorities, especially south Asian. Chesham and Amersham has a slightly better than average health profile. But also deep pockets of severe deprivation. 

The constituency voted Remain in 2016 but it also has (or had) a strong UKIP following. It is a pretty good snapshot of the political mishmash that is the south-east of England in the 21st century. 

It’s been  rock solid Tory since the seat was created more than half century ago. It voted overwhelmingly against Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party in 2019, knocking it back to third place. That was when the Lib Dems picked up steam. This time Labour came fourth to the Greens, picking up just 1.6 per cent of the votes. 

Something significant is happening at the granular level of British politics. The familiar landscape is breaking up. People are shopping around more than ever for an MP. Old shibboleths are being cast aside. This is more than tactical voting. It feels more committed. And it presents an opportunity for real change. 

I suspect one factor – and this will not please Downing Street – is Boris Johnson himself. Quite a few Tories around where I Iive don’t like him. They think he’s a lightweight and a chancer. Or they don’t like Brexit. Or both. People are grateful for the vaccine, but it may be running out of bounce

I know City-types and lawyers whose livelihood depends on London being seen abroad as a law-abiding, haven for international capital who are appalled at the way Johnson plays fast and loose with international law. They see banks and other financial service businesses moving their headquarters to Europe and they worry. 

Most voted Tory last time, as they have done forever, while holding their noses. They’re prepared to put up with Johnson’s bombast and scatter-gun approach to policy, but not when it affects their livelihood. They don’t like the fact that Britain is now regarded as untrustworthy. 

I suspect many Tories in Chesham and Amersham (a mere few miles over the Ivinghoe Beacon) feel the same way. They prefer the old Tory certainties embodied by the likes of Theresa May, now sniping from the back benches. Not every Tory wants to be a revolutionary. Those I know were aghast when the likes of David Gauke, Kenneth Clarke and Nicholas Soames were booted out of the party. 

Reality is beginning to sink in. Buckinghamshire is farming country, albeit rapidly declining. Farmers I know – some who voted for Brexit and some who did not — are watching the decline of food exports with dismay. The latest trade deal with Australia, which threatens to introduce low-standard, cheap imported produce, has them worried.

In short, what pleases new-wave Tories up north does not necessarily sit well with their southern counterparts in this neck of the woods. A schism is opening up. 

The scale of Sarah Green’s victory for the Lib Dems is significant, just as Jill Mortimer’s was in Hartlepool earlier this year. It does not presage a great resurgence for the party. (Ed Davey was wise not to tell his supporters to “prepare for government”.)  

But Tories who have been parading around Westminster for the past 18 months with their tails up, buoyed by their majority of 80 — well, 82 now, with one seat to declare — need to think carefully about their direction of travel. Not everybody is on board. 

The catastrophic Labour Party polling figures add to the Tory feelgood factor. But the narrative that Labour is on the run and the Tories will plant their flag across England securing victory after victory is fool’s gold. Labour is indeed on the run, but it looks like the Tories don’t have anywhere to go except England. 

In the long-term the omens are not good – for either of the two big parties. Scotland is firmly in the grip of the Scottish Nationalists. Northern Ireland is in a dire state. It is only a matter of time before we see a Sinn Fein First Minister, especially with the mess the DUP is making of things. And that opens up the very real possibility of a vote on Irish unity. Wales remains Welsh-flavoured Labour. 

They would rather die than admit it, but both Labour and the Liberal Democrats know they need to start talking about some kind of understanding if they are to engineer a return of progressive government. 

For people like me, who have felt politically homeless for the past few years, this is good news. It opens up the field to change, to surprises. For more, not less, democracy, more local solutions, fewer top-down diktats. 

For party bosses, it’s a nightmare. They can no longer be sure what signals the electorate is sending and therefore how they should respond. They’d better listen up. 

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