We may have the highest death rate — but the worst of Covid is behind us
This week, Britain has reached a turning point in the war on Covid. It can be summarised in two statistics: one sombre, the other sensational. First, the bad news. Figures from Oxford University’s Our World in Data show that over the seven days to January 17, the UK had the highest daily coronavirus death rate in the world: 16.55 per million, just ahead of the Czech Republic. Nearly all the other countries with similarly high death rates are also in Europe. The average number of deaths a day was 935. Every one of these will have meant a tragic loss for their families and friends.
Grim as this figure undoubtedly is, however, it is eclipsed by the astonishing success of the British vaccination programme. According to the Health Secretary Matt Hancock, we are now inoculating 300,000 people a day —more than twice the rate of Denmark, the second best European nation. Yesterday we passed the 4 million mark; Hancock claims that 50 per cent of the over-80s, those in care homes and other vulnerable people have had their first jab. Tom Whipple, The Times science editor, puts it another way: every 30 seconds another Covid patient is admitted to hospital in England, but during those 30 seconds more than 70 people will have been vaccinated.
In other words, we are winning the battle. At this rate, the Government will comfortably hit its mid-February target of protecting the over-70s, those in care homes, health and social care workers and the clinically vulnerable.
It is easy to forget that when the Prime Minister announced that target on January 4, most commentators pooh-poohed it. BBC reports in particular were incredulous, based on the relatively low rate of vaccinations over the previous month. Two factors have made this British triumph possible. The new mass vaccination centres have transformed the picture, increasing the daily rate many times over. This week another 10 hubs have opened, taking the total to 17. The unforgettable image of Salisbury Cathedral made over into a vaccination centre, with the organ playing gentle strains of Bach, Pachelbel and Elgar in the background, will live long in our national memory.
The other factor in revolutionising the logistics of the programme has been the AstraZeneca vaccine, developed at Oxford University with state support. Over the past fortnight, the dynamic dons of Oxford have made the vaccination miracle possible: it is cheap, it does not need to be imported, we do not need to compete with other countries to secure supplies, its manufacture can be rapidly stepped up and there is no need to keep it at minus 70 degrees.
We may be winning, but of course the war has not yet been won. The thorny question of how soon the second “booster” jab needs to be administered is still causing disquiet: the truth is that scientists are not sure how long the immunity conferred by the first shot will last without a second one. There are also the usual complaints about a “postcode lottery”, with reports of some patients in lower categories getting the jab before others who are higher priority, even in the same district. Others grumble about queueing in the cold or having appointments cancelled. But these are minor quibbles compared to the magnitude of the achievement. It is a truly national achievement, accomplished by countless thousands of ordinary people, paid and unpaid, medics and volunteers, professionals and amateurs — a veritable Dunkirk of the pandemic.
Much of the credit for making the miracle happen goes to Hancock and his “minister for vaccination”, Nadhim Zadawi. But the idea of mass vaccination hubs is owed to Israel — the first country in the world to vaccinate three quarters of its over-60s, some 20 per cent of the 9.3 million population. After private talks with their counterparts in Israel, the British Government began multiplying mass vaccination centres and in just over a fortnight they have dramatically increased the rate of immunisation. Not everyone in the NHS welcomed the new initiative but its success has silenced any doubts.
Looking back over the pandemic, it is now clear that initial fears of hundreds of thousands of deaths were no exaggeration. The second wave, driven by mutations, has been far more infectious and therefore deadlier than the first. And without lockdowns and social distancing to reduce its circulation, the death toll would have been far higher. These and other measures have almost certainly reduced the incidence of other infectious diseases too, so that the “flu season” has hardly registered this winter.
Even though the NHS was incomparably better prepared for the second wave, with new treatments tipping the odds in favour of severely ill patients and equipment in plentiful supply, the hospitals are still under unprecedented pressure. A record 34,336 were being treated for Covid yesterday. Only now that the peak has been passed, and the vaccination programme is draining the pool in which coronavirus swims, can we see how close the NHS came to being overwhelmed in the last few weeks. And, as the PM admits, “the situation is still pretty precarious”.
Britain may for the moment have the highest death rate on earth; the total will pass 90,000 today and probably pass 100,000 by the end of the month. Yet the vaccination programme is steadily defeating the coronavirus, by depriving it of its most vulnerable victims. It is far too soon to declare victory. It is not too soon to say that the worst of the pandemic is now behind us. “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…” wrote Dickens of the French Revolution. We can echo his mixed feelings — but not the conclusion of that long sentence: “…it was the winter of despair.” This is now the winter of hope.
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