Whatever happens next, Boris has won

After countless hours of bitter late night negotiations, a deal has been struck. In an unprecedentedly cordial press conference on Thursday afternoon, Boris Johnson and Jean-Claude Juncker told listening journalists that they were happy with the new arrangement, which works “for both Britain and the EU”.

So now for the tricky bit: getting it through the House of Commons. The DUP has explained in no uncertain terms that it won’t vote for the deal, Labour is whipping its MPs to vote against it, and Jo Swinson has already announced that she is now “more determined than ever to stop Brexit”. As for the SNP, Sinn Fein, and the various odds and sods, it seems unlikely that any of them will swoop in to save the Tory Prime Minister.

Unless, that is, they are genuinely persuaded that it’s Boris’s deal or no deal – and it looks like they just might be. Speaking to both Beth Rigby and Laura Kuenssberg this afternoon, Juncker put the cat among the pigeons by saying “if we have a deal, we have a deal. There is no need for a prolongation.” It’s worth pointing out that the decision to agree an extension is not up to Juncker – but it’s just possible that a handful of moderate Remainer MPs won’t want to risk finding out if he’s bluffing.

And even if Boris fails to get the deal through the Commons on “Super Saturday” (the most likely option at the moment), the Prime Minister is still in a pretty comfortable position. If he is forced to seek the three month extension stipulated in the Benn Act, there is every chance that at least one of the weary EU27 leaders will reject it (remember, Brexit uncertainty is almost as damaging to their economies as it is to ours). That would mean that the deal would be brought back to the House of Commons, and, given that no-deal really would be the alternative by then, it would be passed. The Labour MPs who rejected it the first time would have egg on their faces, and the Prime Minister would be in an excellent position to storm an election.

Of course, there remains the possibility that all EU27 countries will agree to an extension, but even if that happens – and that really is the worst case scenario for Boris – it still seems likely that the Prime Minister will do well out of it. Once an extension has been ratified in UK law, Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour will have no excuse to refuse a general election. Much can change during a campaign, as we learnt in 2017, but the Conservatives poll ratings have been excellent for the last couple of weeks – and are bound to be even better tomorrow. When one remembers just how many times the EU categorically ruled out reopening the Withdrawal Agreement, what Boris Johnson has achieved this week will look to many like a pretty impressive feat: not only has his Brexit strategy been vindicated, he has also proved himself to be a serious negotiator.

The fact that the DUP won’t support the deal is a big kick in the teeth for the Tory Government: if a general election returns a Tory minority Government, the Prime Minister will have to find some new allies for a Confidence and Supply agreement – and that won’t be easy. But other than that, today has been a very good day indeed for Boris Johnson. Whether or not his deal passes on Saturday, it looks increasingly likely that he – perhaps alone among UK politicians – will come out of this sorry mess looking really rather good.