Will Johnson go down as the man who broke the Union?

Devolution seemed like such a good idea. First championed by the Tory big beast, Michael Heseltine, over three decades ago, it centred on regions shaping their own destiny. If decisions were made closer to the people who were affected by them, so the theory went, it would afford them a greater stake in the development of their area and lead to more even distribution of power and prosperity. It would, in short, accelerate “levelling up”.

It was wholeheartedly embraced by Tony Blair who oversaw the devolution of power to Scotland, Northern Ireland and London. But for the current Prime Minister, it has turned into a headache. The chief cause of this ailment is Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester. A former Labour Cabinet Minister with impeccable media connections, he is an articulate and wily operator. The limited statutory power he wields over planning, transport, policing and waste management is secondary to his “nuisance” value to the government. Andy Burnham’s position gives him a megaphone and he is proving very effective at using it.

His standoff with the government concerns the imposition, by No10, of Tier 3 restrictions on Manchester. This would shut pubs and bars but would offer no financial package to support those put out of work by the new strictures. Burnham has objected strongly to this.

He is right to point to the economic consequences for people who were already struggling before the lockdown. In 2019, the Resolution Foundation reported that productivity in London was £26,000 higher per capita than the average of the North West, North East and Yorkshire regions. The gap has almost doubled since 2001. The government is well aware of the damaging optics of the lockdown, and of the perceived lack of concern for this north/south divide.

While the government’s immediate challenge is convincing the Mayors of regions in the North to buy into its Covid-19 strategy, a much deeper and fractious devolution problem is simmering in Scotland. A poll by Ipsos Mori last week showed that support for Scottish independence now enjoys a 16 per cent lead over staying in the UK.

The 2014 referendum was meant to settle the matter for a generation. But two factors have changed since then: Britain’s exit from the European Union and the coronavirus crisis.

First, the SNP argues that as Scotland voted to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum, the verdict to leave changed the realities on the ground. Despite Mr Johnson’s bluster, he is sensitive to this, which in large part explains his determination to appear tough on fishing rights as the negotiations with the EU reach their denouement, even though the sector represents just 0.1 per cent of GDP.

Second, the politically-astute Nicola Sturgeon has shown fortitude, honesty and humility in her handling of the pandemic. She has shown strong leadership and has owned up to mistakes, such as over the initial grading problems relating to Scottish Higher exams. She has also been deft at changing tack. Sturgeon enjoys a net approval rating of 49 per cent among Scottish voters. Johnson’s ratings are well into negative territory.

It is for both these reasons that Sturgeon’s party is set to win comprehensively in next May’s Scottish Parliamentary elections. That will give her the necessary mandate to press for another poll on independence. There are some in Downing Street who’ve noticed that Scottish independence would be likely to cement a perpetual Conservative majority in the remainder of the UK. The extent of the Prime Minister’s own commitment to keeping Scotland within the tent is unclear. However, a man with such a firm eye on his place in history is unlikely want the country to break up on his watch.

If Johnson thinks dealing with Burnham is a pain, the Scotland question is of a different magnitude. Simply ignoring the changing political topography, as he has done so far, will not serve him well. He must instead make an emotional appeal to the Scots as to why they are better off staying in the UK. He also needs to aggressively probe the SNP on what currency an independent Scotland would have, and whether it would erect a hard border at Berwick-upon-Tweed.

Sturgeon’s aim is for an independent Scotland to join the EU, but this would encounter resistance from Spain, which is wrestling with its own restive separatists in Catalonia. If EU membership were rejected, the Independent Scots would either have to establish their own currency or remain in a currency union with the rest of the UK. On the other question, it is clear that if Scotland were to gain EU membership, a manned border would have to be introduced to protect the integrity of the EU single market. There is no body of water akin to the Irish Sea to fudge the issue.

The Prime Minister was slow to respond to the pandemic and he cannot be slow on this growing threat to the union. By holding a Brexit vote, David Cameron unleashed forces that are increasingly difficult to contain. Johnson cannot afford to jog on in the hope that the threat will dissipate. The kingdom is looking increasingly disunited.