Why Kemi Badenoch deserves not just to go far, but to win

This Conservative leadership race is much more exciting than anyone expected, for one reason: Kemi Badenoch. Readers of TheArticle may recall that more than three years ago I urged her to stand. I was as confident then that Kemi Badenoch would one day be Prime Minister as I was in 2001 when I was the first to make the same prediction for Boris Johnson. Kemi has more than justified the confidence placed in her by her admirers inside and outside Parliament. She is the true insurgent candidate, as is evident from the fact that the establishment media — especially the BBC and Sky News — have hitherto done their best to ignore her. Yet she has electrified the contest and risen to fourth place, knocking out big beasts in the process.  

In the second round, Rishi Sunak topped the poll with 101 votes — no surprise considering that from the word go he was anointed favourite by that same establishment. Yet doubts about his record, his background and his conduct are becoming ever more urgent. His claim that he will make tackling the cost of living crisis his priority begs the question: where was Sunak when the economy ran up debts on a scale not seen since wartime, financed by the Bank of England?

The inflationary impact was predictable and predicted (not least here by Brian Griffiths, writing two years ago). Yet the then Chancellor chose to ignore the warnings. Former Goldman Sachs banker as he may be, Rishi is anything but a safe pair of hands. Some, too, worry that his family wealth makes him a sitting duck for Labour. At all events, most Tory members do not see him as a man of the people, but rather as a (Green) card-carrying member of the global elite. When asked whether he would remain in the UK if he lost, he denied any plans to emigrate. But in David Goodhart’s terms, he is very much an Anywhere rather than a Somewhere.

Second, with 83 votes, came Penny Mordaunt. She has run a great campaign, even if (like Sunak) she has been preparing for a long time. Unlike Sunak, she is popular with party members. Her naval experience, her charm and her eloquence are all impressive. But what is the substance behind the attractive exterior? Her former boss Lord Frost skewered her this morning: in dealing with the EU, she did not take responsibility, was often AWOL, avoided decisions and was reluctant to stand her ground. If she wasn’t up to the job in a junior capacity, how would she perform in No 10? Then there are her evasions, not to say lies, about her role in the culture war, in particular over trans issues. Suffice it to say that Ms Mordaunt’s instincts are much more woke than her rivals. When the penny drops with the Tory party, the party will drop Penny.

That leaves Liz Truss. As Foreign Secretary, she has been a force of nature, mounting a diplomatic defence of Ukraine to match Ben Wallace’s military one. She is right to say that she would deliver from Day 1. She has held several other Cabinet posts, making her now easily the most experienced member of the Government. Liz has every quality that a politician needs, yet her campaign has thus far lacked fire. She may yet find a distinctive voice but at present she is very much the continuity candidate.

Leaving aside Tom Tugendhat, who seems destined to drop out in the next round, if not before, that leaves Kemi Badenoch. Michael Gove, the cleverest man on either side of the house, summed her up perfectly: “She is brave, principled, brilliant and kind.” That last quality is a rare one in politics, but it matters. Kemi is too kind to dissemble or to tell people what they want to hear. For that reason she is not inclined to promise immediate tax cuts, much as she believes in allowing money to fructify in the pockets of the people, as Gladstone put it.

Nor, though she cares deeply about the environment, is she keen on the arbitrary Net Zero target, because it demands sacrifices from those who can least afford it to make the better-off feel good. Above all, she is determined to get inflation under control — not just because she has read history books about hyperinflation in Weimar Germany, but because as a child growing up in Nigeria, she experienced hyperinflation first hand.  

Kemi Badenoch grasps better than any other candidate that Brexit has made it imperative that Britain now carries forward the consequences for our economy. She has put forward the most interesting policy proposal so far: to take responsibility for economic growth away from the Treasury and create a new office attached to Downing Street, dedicated to boosting growth. It would require iron discipline from the PM, who would not only keep Treasury mandarins at bay but “mark the homework” of the Bank of England, which jealously guards its independence. Plenty of potential for tensions there, but also for a more dynamic economy as a result.

Kemi is a devoted Thatcherite — as a teenager in patriarchal Nigeria, she would silence sexist comments from boys by simply invoking her name. But she knows, as Mrs Thatcher knew, that there are many people who depend on the state, especially in a crisis. Having been both working class and middle class, as she puts it, she is passionate about weaning people off their dependence on the state. She wants to target benefits better and get the Government out of people’s lives. She is a social conservative but a compassionate one too; deeply proud of British history and identity but a thoroughly modern, “relatable” person too.  

Then there is the X factor. What Kemi has is charisma: she exudes warmth, humour, energy and conviction. If she had been promoted a year ago to lift our schools out of their pandemic doldrums, as I advocated at the time, she would by now be the darling of the parents, as Gove was in his day. But she has demonstrated leadership in the culture wars: condemning Critical Race Theory and other unwanted US imports, defending Tony Sewell’s critique of institutional racism and enshrining the right of women and girls to have their own lavatories. At No 10 she would give the lie to the patronising or belittling commentators and colleagues who have doubted whether she is “ready” to take on such responsibility.

This weekend Kemi Badenoch has a chance to shine in the three TV debates or hustings before the third round on Monday. I have no doubt that she will seize the opportunity with both hands. Only in Britain could someone like Kemi rise to the top without hindrance — but in this contest some influential people have still treated her as though she were invisible. Kemi Badenoch is now so visible that even unconscious prejudice cannot hold her back or deny her the office for which she seems predestined. For the sake of our children and grandchildren, I pray that Kemi is given the chance to serve Queen and country as Prime Minister.

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